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A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.

That is the message from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."

New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.

Lack of Serious Debate

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Arguments cover identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be good arguments on each side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.

Possibility of Public Vote

McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."

Appeal for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster must join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."